It all comes down to this: Game 7. A new NBA champion will be crowned Sunday as the Indiana Pacers visit the Oklahoma City Thunder. Tipoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET at Paycom Center.
Indiana dominated Game 6 in surprising fashion, leading by 30 points after three quarters en route to a 108-91 victory. Now things shift back to OKC, where the Thunder have been nearly unbeatable this postseason. What can you expect in Game 7?
Andre Snellings, Eric Moody, Jim McCormick and David Purdum offer plenty of tips on bets and insight.
Bets for NBA Finals Game 7
Pascal Siakam over 11.5 assists and rebounds (+105). He contributes across multiple statistical categories, and with the championship on the line, I expect maximum effort from him and the Pacers, particularly with Tyrese Haliburton not at 100%. Siakam has cleared this line in three of the six Finals games. More importantly, Siakam has averaged 6.2 potential assists and 12.2 rebound chances during the Finals, which positions him well to surpass this mark in Game 7. –– Moody
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 44.5 points, rebounds and assists (-120). It’s been nine years since NBA fans witnessed a Game 7 in the Finals and only four have occurred since 2000. There’s a lot at stake for regular-season MVP Gilgeous-Alexander, especially with the Thunder entering the series as overwhelming favorites. SGA will need a masterful performance to give OKC a shot at the title and to solidify his claim to Finals MVP. While he’s cleared this line in just two of the six games in the series, SGA has gone over in eight of his past 11 games when playing at least 41 minutes, which he’s likely to do in Game 7. — Moody
Andrew Nembhard over 14.5 total points and assists (-120). While Haliburton was able to play well Thursday, he is still dealing with a calf strain and might be limited. Nembhard took on a larger role in Game 6, notching a series-high 17 points with four assists (21 P+A), and I expect him to be called upon again in Game 7. Nembhard averaged 12.5 points and 5.0 assists (17.5 P+A) in the first two games of the series, both in Oklahoma City, and the Pacers will likely need him to at least match those numbers in Game 7. — Snellings
Jalen Williams over 22.5 total points (-125). Williams was in his scoring bag going into Game 6, averaging 31.0 points with at least 26 in each of the prior three contests. He got off to a strong scoring start in Game 6 with 16 points in the first half before the team got blown out in the third quarter. I look for Williams to bounce back in Game 7, playing at home, and generate another high-scoring effort. — Snellings
Pascal Siakam over 20.5 total points (-110). Pascal is the only healthy All-Star-caliber player on the Pacers, and in a road Game 7 he will definitely be tasked with providing consistent scoring. Siakam has averaged 21.3 points in the past four games of the series, with at least 20 points in each of the three previous contests before he sat out most of the 4th quarter in the Game 6 blowout. I expect him to continue scoring at a high level in the finale. — Snellings
Under 214.5 total points (-110). History aligns with this play, as Game 7s are often low-scoring battles. The numbers are persuasive; in league history, teams have scored nearly seven fewer points per 100 possessions in Game 7 than in the prior six contests. The pace often dips, as well, signaling fewer possessions. The eye test also confirms this trend as teams are exhausted both physically and strategically at this stage of the chess match. With the Pacers cutting off passing lanes and the Thunder’s steady turnover creation and rim protection, I’m fading the scoreboard. -McCormick
Line on the move
The line on Game 7 began shrinking Friday morning, dropping as much as 2.5 points, with reports of sharp money on the underdog Pacers showing up in Las Vegas.
The Thunder opened as 8.5-point favorites, but the majority of sportsbooks trimmed the line to -7.5 around 11 a.m. Friday. ESPN BET was an outlier and dropped its line to -6.5.
“Game 7 is the best two words in sports,” said Adam Landeka, vice president of sportsbook strategy and growth for ESPN BET. “We’re expecting a tight game and moving lines in accordance with a number of factors. Haliburton’s performance answered some important questions on his health, and the Pacers and their veteran leaders left no doubt in what continues to be a competitive series.”
Jeff Sherman, NBA oddsmaker for the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas, told ESPN that it took a sharp bet on the Pacers -8, causing the book to drop the number to 7.5.
Chris Andrews, longtime bookmaker for South Point in Las Vegas, also reported seeing sharp money on the Pacers on Friday that caused him to drop his line to -7.
“Finally got some money back [on the Thunder] at -7,” Andrews told ESPN in a text message.
At 7.5, the line is the largest of any of the five Game 7s in NBA Finals since 1991, and the fourth largest in any Game 7 during that time period, according to ESPN Research. — Purdum
